Application of the Montecarlo method for the validation of the budget of a suezmax type ship

  1. Torres do Rego, José María 1
  2. Mascaraque Ramírez, Carlos
  3. Martínez López, Pablo
  4. Sanz Sánchez, David Salvador
  1. 1 Faculty of Naval and Oceanic Engineering, Technical University of Cartagena
Journal:
Ship Science and Technology

ISSN: 2619-645X 1909-8642

Year of publication: 2019

Volume: 12

Issue: 24

Pages: 33-38

Type: Article

DOI: 10.25043/19098642.177 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openDialnet editor

More publications in: Ship Science and Technology

Abstract

As the name suggests, the budget for the construction of a ship, in this case a Suezmax, means to specifically pre-suppose in economic terms, the activities and movements to carry out during the construction of said ship. The importance of this essential phase of the construction process lie one hand in budgeting a competitive price in the market, but without causing economic losses for the shipyard, in order to make a profit for the company.  This study proposes the use of the Monte Carlo method to obtain a greater reliability in the valuation of the Suezmax vessel; in this case, the triangular method will be used, which starting point is based on results obtained from previous research and from which the most likely, most pessimistic and most optimistic ship budget is obtained in order to later perform a simulation. For the realization of said simulation the ship is divided into different items, that will be assigned an optimistic and pessimist percentage based on a likely budget, according to the degree of trust of the shipyard in said concept.The final scope will be the calculation of the management reserve used to rectify any unforeseen item(s) in the construction of the ship.

Bibliographic References

  • A Guide of the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide). VI Edition. 2018.
  • MASCARAQUE-RAMÍREZ C. PARA- GONZÁLEZ, L. Madrid, A. Tools for the improvement of project management: Study of the construction of an ocean patrol type vessel. 2016.
  • ALBARIÑO-CASTRO, R. AZPIROZ AZPIROZ, J. MEIZOSO FERNÁNDEZ, M. Basic project of the merchant ship. 1997.
  • RODRÍGUEZ-ARAGÓN, L. J. Simulación, Método de Montecarlo. 2011.
  • RENÉ VAN DORP, J. KOTZ S. A novel extension of the triangular distribution and its parameter estimation. 2001.
  • US NAVY. Naval ships Technical Manual. 2013.
  • AHMED. M SALEM. Use of Mount Carlo Simulation to assess uncertainties in fire consequence calculation. 2016.
  • HERMARIJ, J. "Better practices of Project Management based on IPMA competences". 2013.