Crecimiento económico regional en Méxicoanálisis del proceso de convergencia en los últimos 40 años
- María Isabel Osorio-Caballero 1
- Roy Nuñez 2
- Andrés Artal-Tur 3
- 1 Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México
- 2 Universidad de las Américas Puebla, México
- 3 Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, España
ISSN: 0186-1042, 2448-8410
Year of publication: 2023
Volume: 68
Issue: 3
Pages: 273-291
Type: Article
More publications in: Contaduría y administración
Abstract
After overcoming the import substitution policies of the 1970s following the change in international economic conditions, the Mexican government began a strong process of productive adjustment and restructuring based on trade liberalization and the application of the recipes of the Washington Consensus in the years 1982-1988. According to the neoclassical theory of growth, the less developed economies would tend to close the per capita income gap with the more developed ones in a process of economic convergence. This article offers a broad vision of the evolution of economic growth in the Mexican states in a context of economic convergence. Thus, the problem of state convergence in Mexico between 1980- 2018 is analyzed. For this, a panel data model is applied that includes the main variables selected by the international literature. In particular, the analysis supports the view that trade openness, institutional variables, level of education, and population variables such as fertility rate and life expectancy are key explanatory variables of differentiated growth trajectories for the states. Thus, a convergence process is observed, surely conditional to different stationary states by groups of states in the country in the past four decades.
Bibliographic References
- Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., y Robinson, J. (2001). The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation. American Economic Review, 91(5), 1369-1401. DOI: 10.1257/aer.91.5.1369
- Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., y Robinson, J. (2005). Institutions as the fundamental cause of long-run growth. Handbook of Economic Growth, 1, 385-472.
- Arrow, K. (1962). Economic welfare and the allocation of resources for invention. In The rate and direction of inventive activity: Economic and social factors (pp. 609-626). Princeton University Press.
- Avilés, A., Gámez, C., y Torres, J. (1997). La convergencia real de Andalucía: Un análisis de cointegración del mercado de trabajo. Estudios Regionales, 47, 15-36.
- Awokuse, T. (2008). Trade openness and economic growth: is growth export-led or import-led? Applied Economics, 40(2), 161-173. DOI: 10.1080/00036840600749490
- Baier, S., y Bergstrand, J. (2007). Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade? Journal of International Economics, 71(1), 72-95. DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2006.02.005
- Baltagi, B. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, John Wiley & Sons Ltd. West Sussex, England.
- Barro, R. (1996a). Determinants of economic growth: A cross-country empirical study. National Bureau of Economic Research, WP 5698.
- Barro, R. (1996b). Institutions and growth, an introductory essay. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2), 145- 148.
- Barro, R. (2000). Education and economic growth. The contribution of human and social capital to sustained economic growth and well-being, 79, 13-41.
- Barro, R. (2001). Human capital and growth. American economic review, 91(2), 12-17. DOI: 10.1257/aer.91.2.12
- Barro, R. (2016). Economic growth and convergence, applied to China. China & World Economy, 24(5), 5-19. DOI:10.1111/cwe.12172
- Barro, R., y Lee, J. (1993). International comparisons of educational attainment. Journal of monetary economics, 32(3), 363-394. DOI:10.1016/0304-3932(93)90023-9
- Barro, R., y Lee, J. (2013). A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950-2010. Journal of development economics, 104, 184-198. DOI:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.10.001
- Barro, R., y Sala-i-Martin, X. (1992). Convergence. Journal of political Economy, 100(2), 223-251. DOI:10.1086/261816
- Barro, R., y Sala-i-Martin, X.(2003). Economic growth. MIT press.
- Baumol, W.(1986). Productivity growth, convergence, and welfare: what the long-run data show. American Economic Review, 76(5), 1072-1085.
- Blanchard, O., Katz, L., Hall, R., y Eichengreen, B. (1992). Regional evolutions. Brookings papers on economic activity, 1992(1), 1-75.
- Cabral, R., y Mollick, A. (2012). Mexico’s regional output convergence after NAFTA: a dynamic panel data analysis. The Annals of Regional Science, 48(3), 877-895. DOI:10.1007/s00168-010- 0425-1
- Castellanos-Sosa, F. (2020). Labor productivity convergence in Mexico. International Journal of Political Economy, 49(3), 243-260. DOI:10.1080/08911916.2020.1824733
- Chiquiar, D. (2005). Why Mexico's regional income convergence broke down. Journal of Development Economics, 77(1), 257-275. DOI:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2004.03.009
- Cuadrado-Roura, J., García-Greciano, B., y Raymond, J. (1999). Regional convergence in productivity and productive structure: The Spanish case. International Regional Science Review, 22(1), 35- 53. DOI:10.1177/016001799761012190
- De la Fuente, A., y Doménech, R. (2001). Schooling data, technological diffusion, and the neoclassical model. American Economic Review, 91(2), 323-327. DOI: 10.1257/aer.91.2.323
- Díaz-Bautista, A., y Cota, J. (2004). Regional convergence of income and labor productivity in Mexico. Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época, 3(1), 3-20. DOI: 10.21919/remef.v3i1.159
- Dollar, D., y Kraay, A. (2003). Institutions, trade, and growth. Journal of monetary economics, 50(1), 133-162. DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(02)00206-4
- Easterly, W., y Levine, R. (2003). Tropics, germs, and crops: how endowments influence economic development. Journal of monetary economics, 50(1), 3-39. DOI: 10.1016/S0304- 3932(02)00200-3
- Esquivel, G., y Messmacher, M. (2002). Sources of regional (non) convergence in Mexico. Banco Mundial, México.
- Frankel, J., y Romer, D. (1999). Does trade cause growth? American Economic Review, 89(3), 379-399. DOI: 10.1257/aer.89.3.379
- Galor, O., y Weil, D. (2000). Population, technology, and growth: From Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond. American Economic Review, 90(4), 806-828. DOI:10.1257/aer.90.4.806
- German-Soto, V., Rodríguez Pérez, R., y Gallegos Morales, A. (2020). Exposure to globalization and regional convergence in Mexico. Estudios Económicos, 35(2), 267-295. DOI:10.24201/ee.v35i2.404
- Hall, R., y Jones, C. (1999). Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(1), 83-116. DOI: 10.1162/003355399555954
- Hausman, J. (1978). Specification test in econometrics. Econometrica, 46, 1251-1271.
- Hurwicz, L. (1950). Least-Squares Bias in Time Series. Statistical inference in dynamic economic models, 10, 365-383.
- Levin, A., Lin, C. F. y Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics 108, 1–24. DOI: 10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7
- Llorente, R. (2004). Convergencia o divergencia del desempleo en el entorno europeo Tesis de doctorado. Universidad de Alcalá.
- Lucas, R. (1993). Making a miracle. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 61(2), 251-272. DOI:10.2307/2951551
- Lucas, R. (2002). Lectures on economic growth. Harvard University Press.
- Mankiw, N., Romer, D., y Weil, D. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407-437. DOI:10.2307/2118477
- Nickell, S. (1981). Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. Econometrica, 49(6),1417-1426.
- Ramírez, J., y Morelos, J. (2002). El concepto de población en los modelos de crecimiento económico. El Trimestre Económico, 69(274), 145-190.
- Rodrik, D. (2000). Institutions for high-quality growth: what they are and how to acquire them. Studies in comparative international development, 35(3), 3-31.
- Román, A., y Moral de Blas, A. (2000). Convergencia real: Un análisis para el mercado de trabajo de Castilla y León. Valladolid: Universidad de Valladolid.
- Royuela, V., y García, G. (2015). Economic and social convergence in Colombia. Regional Studies, 49(2), 219-239. DOI:10.1080/00343404.2012.762086
- Sakikawa, K. (2012). Regional convergence in Mexico, 1970–2005: A panel data approach. Growth and Change, 43(2), 252-272. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2257.2012.00585.x
- Sala-i-Martin, X., y Barro, R. (1995). Technological diffusion, convergence, and growth. Yale-Economic Growth Center.
- Solow, R. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94. DOI:10.2307/1884513
- Wacziarg, R., y Welch, K. (2008). Trade liberalization and growth: New evidence. The world bank economic review, 22(2), 187-231. DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhn007