Aplicación de los modelos de Feltham-Ohlson para la predicción de beneficios y la valoración de acciones

Résumé

This thesis provides an empirical assessment of the Feltham-Ohlson models differencing between firms with positive and negative abnormal earnings. We use different abnormal earnings persistence parameters and different conservatism parameters for firms with positive and negative abnormal earnings. This new contextual linear information dynamic implies different earnings prediction models and different valuation functions for profit making firms and loss making firms. The empirical analysis is referred to the period 1992-99, and uses a sample of Spanish firms quoted on the Madrid S.E. Our results support that the contextual approach followed in the thesis is useful to predict future abnormal earnings and explain current prices. In particular, the Ohlson (1995) model is a good model to forecast future abnormal earnings and stock prices, and the results improve with contextual approach: this implies to value firms with negative abnormal earnings using a temporary model and firms with positive abnormal earnings using a more permanent one. As for the Feltham and Ohlson (1995) model, although it generates the lowest forecast errors in the prediction of positive abnormal earnings, it produces the worst results in forecasting prices