Evidence of good and bad player momentum between games in basketball

  1. Martínez García, Jose Antonio 1
  1. 1 Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena
    info

    Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena

    Cartagena, España

    ROR https://ror.org/02k5kx966

Revue:
Cuadernos de psicología del deporte

ISSN: 1578-8423 1989-5879

Année de publication: 2024

Titre de la publication: CPD1(2024); I-II

Volumen: 24

Número: 1

Pages: 228-241

Type: Article

DOI: 10.6018/CPD.483871 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openDIGITUM editor

D'autres publications dans: Cuadernos de psicología del deporte

Objectifs de Développement Durable

Résumé

A existência de sequências no basquetebol têm sido estudadas em equipas (momentum da equipa) e jogadores (mão quente/momentum do jogador), utilizando diferentes métodos e chegando a resultados contraditórios. No entanto, estudos  empíricos recentes evidenciaram que esse tipo de fenômeno é real e não um viés de percepção. Este estudo analisou uma forma de sequência de jogo para o jogador que até então não havia sido considerada: o ímpeto do jogador entre as partidas. Para tal, participaram neste estudo 39 jogadores e 3483 jogos das temporadas 2016/17 e 2017/18 da NBA, e foram analisados ​​os pontos marcados por minuto em situações de alto e baixo desempenho. Os resultados sugerem que existe uma certa tendência que reflete o momentum, tanto para as boas como para as más exibições, mas esse resultado é influenciado pela percentagem de aproveitamento do jogador, ou seja, a sua capacidade de dominar o jogo. As implicações para a tomada de decisão são finalmente discutidas.  

Références bibliographiques

  • Adler, P., & Adler, P. A. (1978). The role of momentum in sport. Journal of Contemporary Ethnography (formerly the Urban Life), 7, 153-176. https://doi.org/10.1177/089124167800700202
  • Attali, Y. (2013). Perceived Hotness Affects Behavior of Basketball Players and Coaches. Psychological Science, 24(7), 1151-1156. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797612468452
  • Arkes, J. (2010). Revisiting the Hot Hand Theory with Free Throw Data in a Multivariate Framework. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 6(1), 2. https://doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1198
  • Arkes, J. & Martínez, J. A. (2011). Finally, Evidence for a Momentum Effect in the NBA. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 7(3), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1304
  • Ato, M., López-García, J. J., & Benavente, A. (2013). Un sistema de clasificación de los diseños de investigación en psicología. Anales de Psicología, 29(3), 1038-1059. https://doi.org/10.6018/analesps.29.3.178511
  • Barnett, A. G., van der Pols, J. C. & Dobson, A. J. (2005). Regression to the mean: what it is and how to deal with it. International Journal of Epidemiology, 34, 215-220. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyh299
  • Bocskocsky, A., Ezekowitz, J. & Stein, C. (2014). The Hot Hand: A New Approach to an Old “Fallacy”. MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.
  • Briki W and Zoudji B (2019) Gaining or Losing Team Ball Possession: The Dynamics of Momentum Perception and Strategic Choice in Football Coaches. Frontiers in Psychology, 10, 1019. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.01019
  • Casals, M. & Martínez, J. A. (2013). Modelling player performance in basketball through mixed models. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sports, 13(1), 64-82. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2013.11868632
  • Chen, T., & Fan, Q. (2018). A functional data approach to model score difference process in professional basketball games. Journal of Applied Statistics, 45(1), 112-127. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2016.1268106
  • Chen, T., Fan, Q., Liu, K., & Le, L. (2021). Identifying key factors in momentum in basketball games. Journal of Applied Statistics, 48(16), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2020.1795819
  • Csapo, P., Avugos, S., Raab, M. & Bar-Eli, M. (2015a). How should “hot” players in basketball be defended? The use of fast-and-frugal heuristics by basketball coaches and players in response to streakiness. Journal of Sport Science, 33(15), 1580-1588. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2014.999251
  • Csapo, P., Avugos, S., Raab, M. & Bar-Eli, M. (2015b). The effect of perceived streakiness on the shot-taking behavior of basketball players. European Journal of Sport Science, 15(7), 647-654. https://doi.org/10.1080/17461391.2014.982205
  • Dahlstrom, A. T. (2018). The Hot Hand Phenomenon in Basketball Revisited. All Theses. 2952.
  • Hoeche, D. (2007). Robust Standard Errors for Panel Regressions with Cross-Sectional Dependence. The Stata Journal, 7(3), 281-312. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867x0700700301
  • Iso-Ahola, S. E., & Mobily, K. (1980). "Psychological momentum": A phenomenon and empirical (unobtrusive) validation of its influence in sport competition. Psychological Reports, 46, 391-401.
  • Iso-Ahola, S. E. & Dotson, C. O. (2016). Psychological Momentum—A Key to Continued Success. Frontiers in Psychology, 7:1328. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2016.01328
  • Mace, F. C., Lalli, J. S., Shea, M. C., & Nevin, J. A. (1992). Behavioral momentum in college basketball. Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 25, 657– 663. https://doi.org/10.1901/jaba.1992.25-657
  • Martin, B. (2018, February 23). Kobe Turns 40: Looking Back At Kobe Bryant’s 40-Point Game Streak. https://stats.nba.com/articles/kobe-turns-40-looking-back-at-kobe-bryants-40-point-game-streak/
  • Martínez, J. A. (2013) Rendimiento de un jugador de baloncesto tras un partido extraordinario / Performance of a basketball player after an extraordinary game. Revista Internacional de Medicina y Ciencias de la Actividad Física y el Deporte, 13(50), 345-365. https://doi.org/10.15366/rimcafd2021.81.010
  • Millán-Sánchez, A., Madinabeitia, I., de la Vega, R., Cárdenas, D. & Ureña, A. (2023). Effects of emotional regulation and impulsivity on sports performance: the mediating role of gender and competition level. Frontiers in Psychology, 14, 1164956. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1164956
  • Morgulev, E., Azar, O. H., & Bar-Eli, M. (2019). Does a “comeback” create momentum in overtime? Analysis of NBA tied games. Journal of Economic Psychology, 75, 102126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2018.11.005
  • Morgulev, E., Azar, O. H., & Bar-Eli, M. (2020). Searching for momentum in NBA triplets of free throws. Journal of Sports Sciences, 38(4), 390-398. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2019.1702776
  • Morillo-Baro, J. P, Troyano-Gallegos, B., Alejandre Estable, A., Vázquez-Diz, J.A., Reigal Garrido, R. E., Hernández-Mendo, A. & Morales-Sánchez, V. (2021). Influencia del juego interior de la selección española de baloncesto en el rendimiento: análisis de coordenadas polares. Cuadernos de Psicología del Deporte, 21(3), 179-191. https://doi.org/10.6018/cpd.466201
  • Munoz, E., Chen, J. & Thomas, M. (2019). Momentum Effects in the NBA: Exploiting the Fine Line Between Winning and Losing. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3391748
  • Navarro Barragán, R. M., Gómez Ruano, M. Á., Lorenzo Calvo, J., & Jiménez Sáiz, S. (2013). Qualitative analysis of critical moments in basketball. Revista de Psicología del Deporte, 22(1), 0249-251.
  • Reed, D. & O’Donoghue, P. G. (2005), Development and application of computer-based prediction methods. International Journal of Performance Analysis of Sport (e) 5(3), 12-28 https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2005.11868334
  • Roane, H. S., Kelley, M. E., Trosclair, N. M. & Hauer, L. S. (2004). Behavioral momentum in sports: A partial replication with women's basketball. Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 37(3), 385-390. https://doi.org/10.1901/jaba.2004.37-385
  • Salaga, S. & Brown, K.M. (2017). Momentum and betting market perceptions of momentum in college football. Applied Economics Letters, 25(19), 1383-1388. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2017.1420885
  • Solomonov, Y., Avugos, S. & Bar-Eli, M. (2015). Do clutch players win the game? Testing the validity of the clutch player's reputation in basketball. Psychology of Sport and Exercise, 16(3), 130-138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psychsport.2014.10.004
  • Spanos A. (2018). Mis-specification testing in retrospect. Journal of Economic Surveys, 32, 541-77. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12200
  • Taylor, J., & Demick, A. (1994). A multidimensional model of momentum in sports. Journal of Applied Sport Psychology, 6, 51-70. https://doi.org/10.1080/10413209408406465
  • Vallerand, R. J., Colavecchio, P. G., & Pelletier, L. G. (1988). Psychological momentum and performance inferences: A preliminary test of the antecedents-consequences psychological momentum model. Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 10, 92-108. https://doi.org/10.1123/jsep.10.1.92
  • Winston, W. L. (2009). Mathletics. Princeton University Press.